By Stephen Bwire
Former Security Minister Lt Gen Henry Tumukunde has notified the Electoral Commission of his intention to run for the Presidency come 2021.
In a March 3, 2020 letter received by the Electoral Commission, a copy of which was seen by this publication, Gen Tumukunde says he intends to carry out countrywide consultations ahead of the elections in which President Museveni who has been in power since 1986 will also likely seek to extend his rule.
“Whereas Section 3 of the Presidential Elections Act 2005 provides in (1) that an aspirant may consult in preparation for his or her nomination as a presidential candidate within twelve months before the nomination date in (2)-a; that he/she may “carry out nationwide consultations, I wish to notify the Electoral Commission that I will be proceeding to carry out consultations across the country,” reads part of the letter.
The 61-year-old General said his consultations will target various interest groups in the country, with a view of facilitating his decisions ahead of nominations of presidential candidates slated for October 2020.
“I will communicate those decisions to the EC as soon as possible, in any case, during the timeframe prescribed in the relevant laws. My consultations will also extend to the currently existing political groupings and/or political parties, security agencies and law enforcement agencies,” he added.
He said he joins other well-meaning Ugandans, to support the fundamental change which he and other guerilla fighters, including President Museveni, 75, promised Ugandans in the past and a peaceful transition, from one generation to another.
“While I expect all the other support that EC can offer me and my team to carry out peaceful consultations, as a presidential aspirant, I pray that the statutory mandate of the EC shall be respected by other organs of the state, and that there will be harmony throughout this important constitutional exercise,” he added.
Joins list of renegade officers
Gen Tumukunde’s declaration as to contest the top job throws the spanner in the works as he joins the list of other senior military officers who have broken ranks with their commander in chief and challenged him for the top job. At the top of this list is retired Col Dr Kizza Besigye who parted ways with President Museveni and the NRM in 1999 when he authored a dossier questioning the “undemocratic tendencies” in the NRM leadership. In that dossier, which almost led him to military court marshal, Col Besigye contended that the NRM leadership had lost track and deviated from the fundamental revolutionary and democratic ideals for which they had fought in the five-year struggle that catapulted them to power in 1986. Besigye opined that the NRM had increasingly become undemocratic, autocratic, opportunistic and corrupt. He would later jump the gun to run for presidency in the 2001 general elections which saw him coming second to the incumbent with 28 per cent of the total votes cast against Museveni’s 69 per cent. In the subsequent election of 2006, Besigye, after returning from self-imposed exile in South Africa where he had spent four years, ran under the FDC ticket and, unlike in the previous election, he polled 37 per cent of the votes, still finishing in second place.
Not satisfied with the outcome of the results of the elections, Besigye sought legal channels to challenge the outcome of the elections in court. In both cases, the Supreme Court justices would agree with the petitioner (Besigye) that the elections had been marred with irregularities though not substantial enough to overturn the outcome of the elections. In both cases the justices would be split 3:2…three ruling in favour of Museveni and two in favour of Besigye. Tired of the court processes, Besigye would later on declare not to return to Ugandan courts on electoral matters.
Besigye has soldiered on with other elections, in 2011 and 2016 general elections, where, again, his bid to unseat Museveni through elections would prove impotent. To-date, he claims to be the “legitimate” leader of Uganda arguing that Museveni has always rigged his way back to power. In the last 20 years of challenging Museveni, Besigye has enjoyed his fair share of State brutality occasioned with multiple arrests, charges in court, tear gas, pepper spray, and among others. In his recent declaration, he has vowed to return to have another duel with Museveni in the 2021 elections.
Besigye has set the precedence of military officers jumping the queue to challenge their commander in chief. Following the multiparty dispensation in 2005, a number of senior military officers sought retirement from the army and immediately took to politics by joining the Opposition ranks to challenge Museveni. In this category, individuals including Maj Gen Gregory Mugisha Muntu, Col Amanya Mushega, Lt Col Rubaramira Ruranga, Maj John Kazora, Capt Jack Sabiti, Lt Dan Mugarura, and among others, ganged up together with Besigye to drive Museveni out of power under the umbrella of Forum for Democratic Change (FDC). There was also another category of bush-war historicals including Brig Eriya Kategaya (RIP), Jaberi Bidandi Ssali, John Musinguzi Garuga, Winnie Byanyima, and among others who would keep the political pressure high. Miria Matembe, David Pulkol, Richard Kaijuka, Mathew Rukikaire, et cetera, had all fallen out with Museveni over the acrimonious issue of presidential term limits. Amongst these individuals, Kategaya returned to NRM where he was reinstated to the cabinet position of First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for East Africa, a position he held till his death in 2013. Amanya Mushega, Matembe, Kazora, Pulkol, Musinguzi Garuga, Sabiti, and among others have conspicuously gone mute although some have since fallen out with Besigye, a case being Mugisha Muntu who now runs his own party called Alliance For National Transformation (ANT).
Gen Sejusa aka Tinyefuza
In the 2016 elections, the political horizon was excited with the emergence of Gen David Tinyefuza aka Sejusa [former coordinator of intelligence services] who fearlessly came up to oppose Museveni. Sejusa would later on run to exile over a letter he reportedly authored alleging that some people including himself where targets of assassinations having resisted the plot to install First Son Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba to succeed his father, in what would famously be called the “Muhoozi project.”
Sejusa returned to the country in December 2014 after almost two years in self-imposed exile. The General would soon start from where he had stopped, this time joining forces with the Opposition calling for an end to Museveni’s rule. The State did not blink. Sejusa would be arrested and held incommunicado at the Military Barracks in Makindye just a year to 2016 elections where he would face a lengthy court battle at the Military General Court Marshal to answer to charges prejudicial to the good order and conduct of a serving UPDF officer. After securing court bail, Sejusa has since gone in oblivion, though some analysts would argue that the once maverick General has been “rehabilitated.”
Before the dust raised by Gen Sejusa could settle, another military officer in the name of Gen Benon Biraro (RIP) shot up to challenge Museveni in the 2016 elections. Though not a firebrand politician and one not given to fights, Gen Biraro, according to analysts, developed the most persuasive message in his manifesto anchored on uplifting the rural masses through setting up special economic production zones to unlock the country’s regional competitiveness. His rallying point were the country’s farmers, and poor rural folk. Biraro’s campaigns didn’t have the funfair as was case with other contestants including Besigye and Amama Mbabazi. He would only attract small crowds.
Amama Mbabazi
The same 2016 elections witnessed the excited arrival of long-serving Museveni confidant and one of the bush-war architects John Patrick Amama Mbabazi. Mbabazi’s declaration to run for the top job, first as chairman of the ruling NRM party, and then the party’s presidential flag-bearer, caused shivers down the spine of the establishment with some officials in government, security, cabinet, parliament, overtly and covertly shifting allegiance to the former prime minister, minister for security and NRM secretary general. Mbabazi, who ran his campaign on the ticket of Go Forward and TDA, seemed to assemble a formidable campaign team whom he had promised lots of good returns once in power. He had also assured voters of victory…according to his submission, he had been the engine and fulcrum on which the NRM system operated. He rallied international support and media and assured voters that this time round things would be different…that he was the man who had been fixing things for Museveni including rigging votes, now he was here to do it this side of the fence. His only call to voters was to go cast their vote for him and leave the dynamics for him to handle. Days passed by, and come election day, Mbabazi emerges a distant third managing a paltry 1.4 per cent of the total votes cast. He would soon run to court seeking to challenge the outcome of the elections, however, he lost…but won on the court’s ruling ordering government to critically address the fundamental issue of electoral reforms. Mbabazi has not yet declared whether he will return to the ring, but, going by the look of things, he seems done with politics, per chance, waiting to be deployed.
Enter Gen Tumukunde
Lt Gen Henry Tumukunde is a former minister for security having been appointed to the position in 2016 after elections. Before that, he had been promoted from the rank of Brigadier to three-star general and retired. A former chief spy, he was deployed by President Museveni to play an instrumental role in mobilising votes for Museveni with a good budget.
Having been sacked as security minister, Tumukunde started testing the political waters first by announcing his intention to run for Kampala Lord Mayoral seat. He started-off his ground-breaking consultations where he seemed to have some positive appeal though sketchy. He seemed to have developed alternative grand ideas beyond the small job of Lord Mayor…now he wants to swallow a big juicy frog!
But the question, begs, why is Tumukunde coming up to declare his intentions for the top job? What is his game-plan? In the past few days following his declaration, he has roundly been dismissed by sections of voters as “another Mbabazi.”
Some analysts would opine that Tumukunde is betting his chances at something we seem not to see at the moment.
“Tumukunde is one man who is calculative and suave in his operations, and decisions. At this moment, Museveni is getting increasingly worn out and the President may not stay in power for another 10 years. He is now fatigued, and may not push on in the time to come. Tumukunde is now preparing his presidential bid in a post-Museveni era, but, for now, he is just introducing himself to the voters well-knowing that he may not get anything in return,” says a political analyst who declined to be named.
Another school of thought has it that Tumukunde is chasing after attention and Museveni’s money.
“He [Tumukunde] is blackmailing Museveni by attempting to create a situation so that Museveni calls him to a negotiating table. I wouldn’t be surprised if tomorrow Tumukunde is paid money to join Museveni and uses his mobilisation network to campaign for Museveni. Unfortunately, he seems to behave like Full Figure and other musicians who have joined Museveni to defeat Bobi Wine. So, his interest is purely money, and nothing beyond that,” says another analyst who sits on the NRM’s top decision organ- CEC, adding, “Right now it is difficult for people to trust Tumukunde because he has been at the centre of the regime, they will hold him with suspicion like they did with Mbabazi.”
The CEC official avers that Museveni’s options on Tumukunde, should he turn out to be a threat is three: Ignore him. Give him cash to buy his silence. Send him to Luzira.
“Museveni is one man who will not take things lightly, for now he seems to be weighing Tumukunde. By now he knows the kind of person Tumukunde is, having known him for a very long time.”
Others hold the view that Tumukunde, being a close member of the First Family, could be out on a mission to infiltrate and destroy the Opposition forces from within.
“The whole plan is about weakening and confusing the Opposition most especially Bobi Wine and his People Power. Tumukunde works underground and before you know it the opposition will be no more,” says Johnson Turyatemba, a resident of Rukungiri District who is a People Power supporter, quickly adding: “In the coming days we are going to witness drama with Tumukunde being arrested, harassed or blocked from his consultations, tear-gassed and possibly sent to jail, all to make it appear real that the man is genuinely opposing Museveni.”
But, all said, will Gen Tumukunde’s declaration to contest the top job yield anything tangible, or he is dead wood producing cold, impotent ash?
