Lands Minister Beti Kamya sounds confident she will win both the NRM primaries and general elections to once again become the Rubaga North MP, a position she previously held once (2006-2011). Inside NRM, she doesn’t seem bothered with giants like Singh Katongole whose supporters say he should still carry the NRM flag to challenge Moses Kasibante who has been the incumbent for now 10 years (2011-2021).
Yet the irony is that the factors to determine Beti Kamya’s win are exogenous to the NRM and her victory will inadvertently be authored by the chaos in the opposition. And Kamya has the money and the political brinkmanship to ferment even more chaos within the opposition by inciting many more candidates to insist on running in 2021.
FLASHING BACK
In 2001, Rubaga North (which had for years been the opposition stronghold with DP’s Wasswa Lule holding forte) fell to Museveni’s National Resistance Movement whose flag bearer was Tom Kayongo who many felt didn’t stand even slightest chance in an electoral area which Col Kizza Besigye, then of Reform Agenda, had swept like there was no tomorrow. Being a traditional opposition stronghold, many opposition actors felt they are entitled to standing there and winning very easily because majority residents hated Gen Museveni and his NRM.
In the end, you had Florence Bagunywa Nkalubo of DP, incumbent Wasswa Lule (rebel DP), Prince Kayondo, Rashid Musisi (Seya’s protégé) and Beti Kamya all standing for the same seat. Kamya was then a big hero who many politically disgruntled Kampalans liked very much because of the role she had played as the spokesperson of the Elect Besigye Task Force. She would often appear on WBS, which was the major TV station in the country (more authoritative than even today’s NBS), to take on strong Musevenists like John Nagenda, Ofwono Opondo or even Kasirye Ggwanga.
All opposition candidates claimed loyalty to Besigye, whose qualitative challenge to Gen Museveni had excited many traditional opposition supporters, but Kamya had even bigger claim being closer to Besigye for whom she continued being spokesperson along with others like Annie Mugisha. Despite calls on her by the DPs that she shouldn’t run because that would be ungrateful to the party that wholeheartedly endorsed her KB, Kamya insisted on contesting, making the race even more crowded. She rightly considered herself a better quality candidate compared to the type that was coming from DP-Florence Bagunywa Nkalubo, Prince Gerald Kayondo, Rashid Musisi and Wasswa Lule. In the end you had so many opposition contenders facing one NRM person-and that is how Tom Kayongo, who many considered unlikely (despite being father to then much written about beauty queen/celebrity Doreen Kayongo) carried the day.
Truth is when combined the votes the multiple opposition candidates split in that 2001 elections were enough to trounce NRM but that never happened because Kayongo only had to consolidate the minority NRM supporters and cruised to victory; leaving Kamya & Co licking their political wounds. It’s true it wasn’t easy for Kayongo leading in an area where very few liked him and the political platform he represented but it’s a reality the betrayed voters had to put up with him for the next five years (2001-2006). In 2006, you still had multiple opposition candidates (even Parties were now back) but Beti Kamya, riding on the Besigye momentum, easily dwarfed all of them and became Rubaga North MP. Voters kept saying they must die with her because of the anti-Museveni consistency she had exhibited since the fleeing of her boss Besigye to exile in South Africa.
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF
Apparently, what is happening today in Rubaga North just months to the general elections is reminiscent of the circumstances of 2001 when Tom Kayongo shrewdly exploited a divided opposition and cruised to victory. It’s a favorable reality that Beti Kamya knows very well about and it must be the thing that is emboldening her to risk running on NRM ticket in an area she knows her new party, despite all the money it has, has very limited electoral support. Kamya, who speaks with extreme confidence, must be seeing herself as the Tom Kayongo of 2001 (winning for NRM).
Just like in 2001, you have a ruling party that isn’t liked any better (notwithstanding the good ratings Museveni is thought to have reaped from the COVID19 leadership) and an opposition that is increasingly getting fractured beyond redemption. In the running for the Rubaga North trophy in 2021 is the incumbent Moses Kasibante of the People’s Government who also professes Dr. KB; money-splashing Abubaker Kawalya (hoping to make history being the first Muslim to become MP Rubaga north) and James Mubiru who is related to Bobi Wine through marriage. Mubiru and Kawalya both profess People Power and they keep telling voters Bobi Wine is the one who has endorsed their bid. And yet that isn’t all. There is also Henry Lubowa of SDP/DP Bloc who also claims to be for the People Power platform. Many more will potentially come up: all against Kamya who is already having better resources, the state machinery firmly behind her and could potentially prop up more opposition contenders like she tried in 2016; inciting a one Musoke to come up antagonizing Besigye-backed Moses Kasibante while claiming to be the FDC flag bearer.
Curiously, Kamya seems to be more comfortable with Abubaker Kawalya being her opponent and most hostile to Moses Kasibante who she claims stole her votes in 2016. When she appears on radio talk shows, Kawalya’s men call in to praise her while confessing “Honorable we don’t have any problem with you because you are as good as our boss Abubaker Kawalya when it comes to materially lobbying for your people.” Last Saturday she appeared on Top Radio’s morning political program and pro-Kawalya callers rang in saying she was second best for Rubaga apart from Kawalya. Some, including those who viciously hate Kasibante simply because he doesn’t give money to people to call in and praise him, went as far as suggesting Kamya and Kawalya should sit down, talk and agree on some joint candidature just to overcome Kasibante who Kamya says is too hateful of Gen Museveni to bring anything developmental to Rubaga north voters.
Credit: mulengeranews.com
