By Eng.Kiiza Idiri Kamuntu
*POVERTY NUMBERS TO INCREASE BY 2.6 MILLION PEOPLE IN UGANDA*
✍?The government of Uganda estimates that poverty numbers, according to the national poverty line, could increase by 2.6 million people.
✍?The World Bank warns that without significant investments in people, additional stress and emergencies, like epidemics and natural disasters, similar to the ongoing pandemic, are likely to increase the level of vulnerability for the 8 million Ugandans living in poverty, as well as the 5 million who got out of poverty in the past 10 years.
✍?“Two out of three people who get out of poverty fall back in – that is about 1.4 people in the last household survey conducted in 2016. We need to consider the importance of investing in people, building their human capital, and providing them with the tools and assets to manage shocks and reduce their vulnerability.”
✍?We need to check public spending and socio-economic indicators at National and Parish levels.
?? *INCREASE IN POVERTY AND VULNERABILITY*✅✅
●Uganda’s national poverty rate stands at 19.7%. This means there are 8 million Ugandans living under the national poverty line.While this is a significant decline from the 31.1% level in 2006, it is estimated that 1 in 5 Ugandans still lives in extreme poverty and more than a third live on less than US$1.90 (UGX 7,000, converted on 7 August 2020) a day.
●Some estimates for the potential impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on poverty incidence places Uganda among the top ten contributors to additional global poverty as a result of unemployment and labour income shocks associated with Covid-19 response measures, such as lockdowns.
●Over 13.67 million or 98% of Uganda’s total working age population are engaged in the informal sector. Commonly, business operations in the informal sector are neither registered nor protected by the state, have no registered interests or assets, and are vulnerable and excluded from governments impact mitigation programmes for businesses, as well as social safety nets and protection accorded by formal labour contracts.
●The lockdown and other Covid-19 related restrictions have affected the operation of informal businesses and SMEs that continue to pay rent for premises without operations. Some continue to pay wages to employees that are not working, servicing loans that are not being put into productive use, while the few that are operating are buying input at higher than normal prices.
●With close to 50% of Ugandan businesses not surviving past their third birthday under normal circumstances, it is likely that investments, jobs and livelihoods will be lost because of the Covid-19 pandemic.
While people living in poverty in urban areas are at greatest risk of suffering immediate loss of income due to lockdown measures, people living in rural areas are also at risk of falling back into poverty due to heavy dependence on subsistence rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods.
●The vulnerability of people living in poverty is worsened by extreme weather events, such as drought and floods, as well as infestations and health risks including illness, disability and epidemics.
●The Covid-19 pandemic is therefore likely to compromise Uganda’s achievement in poverty reduction which has been attributed to the favourable food prices and weather that boosted the income of agricultural households in recent years.
●The impacts of Covid-19 at a global level is likely to effect commodity prices as demand falls. This will have a direct impact on the livelihoods of many vulnerable households and push many people that had previously got out of poverty back below the poverty line.
The short-term response measures, like food distribution targeting only the urban poor vulnerable households during lockdown, have had little impact in reducing the effects of Covid-19 on those living in poverty in Uganda. This also applies to ill-targeted economic stimulus that are benefit workers in the formal sector rather than those in the informal sector.
*RECOMMENDATIONS TO SAVE THE SITUATIONS*
●Urban and formal sector learning measures need to be applied in a way that is clear and inclusive with a short-, medium- and long-term plan for mitigation, recovery and resilience building. This is the only way to ensure that the damaging impacts of the severe lockdown and other Covid-19 response measures on the economy, people’s livelihoods and welfare are properly documented and addressed equitably.
●A clear government response strategy is needed, to ensure adequate attention and protection for the poorest and most vulnerable sections of the population. This will protect against the negative impact of the pandemic on the health and livelihoods of the most vulnerable.
●The FY2020/21 funding allocation to pro-poor sectors, such as health and social protection, needs to be revised to reflect sector needs and accommodate additional constraints imposed by Covid-19. This will enable the government to, for example, fast-track the expansion of its social protection programmes and serve as a more direct, sustainable and inclusive mechanism for protecting people living in poverty.
●The drawbacks of the restrictive Covid-19 response measures should be documented across sectors and used as lessons for designing responses in future crises. This will prevent inadvertent loss of many lives from existing and manageable conditions due to poor responses to crises in future.
●The government needs to pay close attention its rising fiscal deficit and the increase in public debt towards unsustainable levels. The increase in loans to deal with the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic should be checked. This calls for clear mechanisms for good public debt management as well as the efficient use of available resources to avoid slipping deeper into debt stress
Kind Regards
*Eng.Kiiza Idiri Kamuntu*
?️The Keen Eye
☑️The Patriot
☑️NRM Cadre
☑️National Coordinator for Team Thorough-YKM
