By Stephen Bwire
A consortium of donors supporting Uganda’s Opposition have forced former FDC leader and four-time presidential candidate Dr Kizza Besigye to work with People Power Movement leader Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine and come up with an agreeable formula of having a “running-mate” in the 2021 elections, The Public Lens can authoritatively report.
In the proposed power restructuring line-up which FDC is finding difficult to swallow, Besigye has been forced to play second fiddle as Bobi’s running-mate. The donors premise their decision on the fact that Besigye’s support has waned in the last couple of years, and that Bobi Wine also Kyadondo East MP has risen as the most popular Opposition politician as he seems to enjoy the support of Uganda’s key demographic, the youth.
The current talk of Bobi-Besigye alliance is reportedly part of the power sharing shenanigans in the Opposition Camp. According to information obtained by this newspaper from a top FDC leader, the recent visit by Besigye and Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago to Bobi Wine’s home in Kasangati was part of the shuttle moves of throwing a spanner in the works to see if the Kyadondo East MP would succumb to the arms-wrestling tactics of fortifying Besigye on the stage to face-off with Museveni in 2021. It’s reported that Bobi roundly objected to the proposal, insisting that he [Bobi] wasn’t stepping aside for anybody.
“Bobi has weighed his chances, he sees his popularity growing by day while Besigye is losing ground. The young man [Bobi] has been meeting a section of international backers and donors who have assured him of support after gauging his national support. Mind you these donors are not stupid, they have been logistically supporting Besigye without any tangible results, they now see in Kyagulanyi a real challenger to Museveni and they are quick to shift their support,” said the FDC official. The official enumerated three key factors that seem to play in Bobi’s favour: the fact that Bobi is a Muganda
[some Baganda would consider him as their ‘only hope’]
and his close relation to Mengo [seat of the Buganda Kingdom], ties with Catholic Church [some Catholics say it’s their turn to produce a president], and support of the youth- who are majority voters.
If the ongoing behind-the-scene moves by donors yield to the Bobi-Besigye alliance with Besigye strapped on Bobi’s back, the FDC official contends that still it wouldn’t be a loss for them. “That would still be good news for us; we would still be in power, we would also still have the people in our support, and we would still have money once we come in government, so who loses?”
Law doesn’t provide for running-mate
However, much as the donors are pushing through with this move of coercing Besigye to the sidelines as running-mate, the current law doesn’t provide for a running-mate though having one, as one analyst puts it, wouldn’t carry any legal consequences. “The only value is like what a flower girl adds to the wedding. She is of no legal consequence.”
Introducing the position of running-mate who would be designated as Deputy President was among the raft of constitutional and electoral reforms that the Opposition presented to parliament at the start of this year following the 2016 ruling of the Supreme Court in the Amama Mbabazi Versus Kaguta Museveni and 2 Others Presidential Election Petition. In this case, if the proposed constitutional reforms don’t come through before the 2021 elections, and in the case that Bobi was elected [just if], Besigye would find himself being a mere political appointee to the position of vice president. Though the second most senior position in the constitutional hierarchy after the president, the vice president doesn’t wield much power, as he merely works on delegated power from the President who wields absolute executive power as Fountain of Honour, Headof State and Commander-in-Chief.
That notwithstanding, in the current political speak, what is being termed as “running-mate” is actually an alliance between Kizza Besigye and Bobi Wine which the two parties seem to be working on. But one would ask if this arrangement would benefit Besigye and give him ultimate satisfaction. Simply put, what if Bobi Wine, on winning power, reneges on his part of the bargain to appoint Besigye as vice president?
Fruitless walk to power
Besigye has featured on the political scene for the last 20 years as President Museveni’s fiercest challenger, the two bush war comrades having fallen out in 1998 when Besigye authored the famous dossier critical of the Museveni regime. Since then, at every presidential election cycle, Besigye and Museveni have locked horns in dramatic duels that have often left the former jittery over “vote rigging”. Having failed to dislodge his commander-in-chief through elections, Besigye has since embarked on a defiance campaign whose mission is to bring down the regime of Museveni to a sudden end before 2021 elections. The defiance campaign goes back to soon after the 2011 general election when Besigye, joined by other Opposition actors, launched the famous walk-to-work protests which rocked the entire country, protesting against the rising costs of commodities, high inflation, among others. This was the time the then FDC leader vowed a political tsunami that was to force down Museveni’s regime through mass civil protests or disobedience. The 2016 elections were to return the same farcical acts, with Besigye who garnered 35% of the presidential vote, organising a parallel mock swearing-in ceremony which would see him locked behind bars and slapped with treason charges, the case is yet to be concluded. A few months back, Besigye announced a parallel People’s Government under the “rule by defiance.” However, pundits would opine that the declaration of the People’s Government is a posturing gimmick aimed at salvaging his waning popularity- largely chipped off by Bobi’s unprecedented popularity.
Bobi-Besigye alliance non-starter
The ruling National Resistance National Resistance Movement (NRM) has laughed off the proposed alliance of the two Opposition politicians, calling it a ‘non-starter’. Asked for his opinion on the subject, the NRM Secretariat senior manager for media, communications and public relations Rogers Mulindwa said that there’s no way the two men could work together when it comes to issues of posturing for political power. “This so-called proposed alliance is a joke of the century, it’s something being built on quick sand, and if anything it won’t work out because the two men are both power hungry. Besigye has been fighting so hard to be president, and here comes Kyagulanyi who has declared his intentions to the presidency. So who is to leave space for who?” said Mulindwa adding: “Kyagulanyi is mere passing barren clouds, he will soon vanish when the heat is too much…first of all he is making noise around Kampala, but where is his support base? Where are his structures? How is he going to reach out to the grassroots without any solid structures? Kyagulanyi is a just an empty gong, I would rather we discussed serious matters than Kyagulanyi.”
Museveni’s growing support
On his part, President Yoweri Museveni is not blinking. The President who is also NRM Chairman is currently on a nation-wide tour where he is mobilising and teaching wananchi on poverty eradication, wealth and job creation. Museveni’s tours have attracted mammoth crowds with leaders in each of the regions endorsing the NRM CEC and NRM Parliamentary Caucus resolutions to have President Museveni as the NRM Party Sole Candidate in the 2021 elections, and to continue as head of state in 2021 and beyond basing on his stellar performance at the helm of the country in the last 33 years.
According to sources closer to the President, the 74-year-old veteran politico-guerilla is not scared of any political formation ganging up against him as he sees himself consolidating his victory ahead of time. It’s worth noting that in 2016, Museveni vowed to eliminate all Opposition, and true to his word, we are witnessing an Opposition which is at their weakest point. The fights in FDC, DP, UPC, and other opposition forces would only accord Museveni a soft chair to massage his back.
