Kampala, long seen as the opposition’s stronghold, is showing cracks as the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) ramps up its presence in the city ahead of the 2026 elections.
For years, the capital has been a no-go zone for President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and his party, consistently favoring opposition candidates. But political observers now say that may be changing.
Speaking on a morning talk show, political analyst Obed Katureebe pointed to growing divisions within the opposition.
“Kampala has been a dominant opposition territory. However, I think for the first time, we are seeing very sharp divisions in the Opposition in Kampala,” Katureebe said.
He explained that the shift is driven by residents’ focus on everyday needs. Jobs and livelihoods are taking priority over the traditional opposition agenda of removing Museveni from power.
“I think this is now a fight for jobs. The agenda to remove NRM and Museveni is no longer at the forefront. People just want jobs,” Katureebe added.
The NRM’s social and economic programs, such as the Parish Development Model (PDM) and Emyooga, are also gaining traction in urban areas, including Kampala.
“Don’t get shocked if surprises happen in the 2026 elections. Museveni hasn’t been sleeping. The PDM and Emyooga initiatives, especially in Kampala, might cause the NRM to make serious inroads in Kampala,” Katureebe said.
Some opposition figures, like former Makindye East MP Hon. Ibrahim Kasozi, downplay claims of new divisions. But even he admits that the current leadership is showing weakness.
“When you talk of a divided opposition, has the opposition ever been united? The opposition has never offered a joint candidate in Kampala before,” Kasozi said.
He added that while historical disunity existed, today’s leadership failures make the divide far more visible.
“The reason why the divide is so pronounced now is because the current leaders of the opposition in Uganda are weak; they have failed the populace,” Kasozi argued.
With 2026 approaching, Kampala’s political scene is more unpredictable than ever. NRM’s development-first approach appeals to urban voters, while the opposition remains mired in infighting.
If the trend continues, the ruling party could make unprecedented gains in the city, reshaping Kampala’s political map and setting the stage for a decisive NRM victory in 2026.
