Uganda is intensifying efforts to transform its economy, with trade emerging as one of the most powerful engines expected to drive the country toward a $500 billion economy by 2040.
Across government institutions, development partners, and the private sector, there is growing consensus that expanding exports, strengthening value addition, and improving trade systems will play a decisive role in Uganda’s long-term prosperity.
These ambitions took center stage at the National Trade Review Conference 2026, where leaders gathered to reflect on progress and chart the next phase of the country’s trade transformation journey.
The conference, held at the Speke Resort Convention Centre in Munyonyo, brought together policymakers, private sector leaders, and international partners under the theme **“Trade-Driven Transformation: Propelling Uganda to a $500B Economy by 2040.”**
Discussions throughout the event underscored the importance of building a strong export economy, improving trade infrastructure, and deepening regional and global market integration.
Trade at the Heart of Uganda’s Economic Transformation
Opening the conference, Minister of Trade, Industry and Cooperatives Francis Mwebesa emphasized that trade is central to Uganda’s development ambitions.
He described it as a critical pillar of the government’s Ten-Fold Growth Strategy aimed at accelerating economic expansion and raising national income levels.
“Trade is central to Uganda’s economic transformation and an important pillar of the Ten-Fold Growth Strategy,” he said.
Mwebesa noted that despite global economic pressures, Uganda’s trade sector has continued to demonstrate resilience.
He attributed this stability to ongoing policy reforms and the strengthening of institutions responsible for regulating and supporting the country’s trade environment.
The minister pointed to strong export performance in 2025 as evidence that Uganda’s trade reforms are bearing fruit.
Gold exports alone generated approximately $6.4 billion in revenue, making the mineral one of the country’s largest sources of foreign exchange.
Coffee also remained a key export commodity, earning Uganda about $2.2 billion during the same year.
According to Mwebesa, the coffee export figures reaffirm Uganda’s position as Africa’s leading coffee producer and highlight the continued importance of agriculture in the country’s export economy.
He also acknowledged the role played by development partners in strengthening Uganda’s trade ecosystem.
Mwebesa specifically thanked TradeMark Africa and the United Kingdom government for their support in trade facilitation, infrastructure development, and the strengthening of quality standards.
After outlining the progress made so far, he officially declared the conference open.
Uganda’s Export Growth Gains Momentum
Earlier in the conference, State Minister for Trade Wilson Mbasu Mbadi provided a broader overview of the country’s export performance.
He revealed that Uganda’s exports have grown significantly in recent years, now exceeding $13.4 billion.
This increase, he explained, reflects both rising industrial activity and improvements in trade systems designed to support exporters.
Mbadi said stronger enforcement of product standards by the Uganda National Bureau of Standards (UNBS) has helped Ugandan goods gain credibility in international markets.
At the same time, the Uganda Export Promotion and Free Zones Authority has played an important role in helping local producers access new markets abroad.
Uganda has also strengthened its trade diplomacy within regional blocs such as the East African Community (EAC) and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA).
Beyond regional markets, the country has expanded trade ties with the United Arab Emirates, the wider Middle East, China, and Europe.
Mbadi emphasized that these developments are part of broader reforms implemented under President Yoweri Museveni’s leadership.
He said the reforms are gradually positioning Uganda for deeper structural economic transformation.
A Stable Economy Supporting Trade Expansion
The Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Cooperatives, Lynette B. Bagonza, highlighted the macroeconomic environment supporting the country’s trade growth.
She noted that Uganda’s economy recorded a growth rate of 6.1 percent during the Financial Year 2023/24.
According to Bagonza, this performance has been supported by continued macroeconomic stability.
Inflation has remained relatively low, fluctuating between 3 and 5 percent, while the fiscal deficit has declined to about 5 percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product.
She also pointed to the rapid expansion of Uganda’s export sector over the past five years.
During this period, export earnings increased from approximately $4.5 billion to $13.4 billion.
Bagonza said the growth reflects improved market access and increased diversification of Uganda’s export products.
Imports have also risen, reaching around $15.7 billion.
Much of this increase, she explained, is linked to the importation of industrial machinery, fuel, and raw materials required for manufacturing and infrastructure development.
Regional Markets Driving Uganda’s Trade
Regional trade continues to play a vital role in Uganda’s export performance.
Bagonza noted that about 38 percent of Uganda’s exports are destined for markets within the region.
More than 70 percent of the country’s manufactured exports are absorbed by neighboring countries. She also highlighted the growing importance of the COMESA market.
Exports to COMESA increased from $1.59 billion in 2020 to $2.4 billion in 2025.
Despite this growth, Bagonza acknowledged that several structural challenges continue to limit Uganda’s full trade potential.
One of the most pressing issues is the high level of informality in the economy. She said around 72 percent of enterprises still operate in the informal sector.
This situation limits businesses’ access to financing, technology, and international markets. To overcome this challenge, Bagonza stressed the need to increase industrial production and value addition.
She said Uganda must raise the share of manufactured exports from the current 19 percent to about 50 percent by 2040.
Technology and Border Reforms Cutting Trade Costs
Trade facilitation reforms are also beginning to make a noticeable impact on Uganda’s trading environment.
Ann Nambooze, Country Director of TradeMark Africa, highlighted progress made in improving border management and reducing the cost of cross-border trade.
She said TradeMark Africa has supported the establishment of seven One-Stop Border Posts across the region.
These border posts allow traders to clear goods through a single coordinated process instead of dealing with multiple agencies separately.
Nambooze also pointed to the introduction of the Electronic Single Window system.
The system enables traders to submit documentation electronically to several government agencies at the same time.
According to her, these reforms have reduced trade costs by approximately 32 percent by cutting processing times and reducing the need for traders to move between different offices.
The Persistent Challenge of Non-Tariff Barriers
Despite the progress made in trade facilitation, Nambooze warned that non-tariff barriers remain a major obstacle to trade across Africa.
She said these barriers are estimated to cost the continent around $9 billion every year. Nambooze also cited recent disruptions affecting cross-border trade between Uganda and South Sudan.
The situation was eventually resolved following intervention by the Ministry of Trade.
She further emphasized the growing importance of sustainable and environmentally responsible trade practices.
According to her, embracing green trade will be essential for maintaining competitiveness in global markets that increasingly prioritize sustainability.
Untapped Opportunities in Global Markets
The British High Commissioner to Uganda, Lisa Chesney, acknowledged Uganda’s progress in expanding its export sector.
However, she said more effort is needed to address implementation gaps in trade policies.
Chesney pointed out that although exports have grown, Uganda’s exports per capita remain lower than those of some neighboring countries.
She highlighted opportunities available under the United Kingdom’s Developing Countries Trading Scheme.
The scheme allows tariff-free access to the UK market for about 99 percent of goods produced in eligible developing countries.
However, she noted that Uganda is not yet fully benefiting from these preferences.
More than half of Uganda’s cut-flower exports to the United Kingdom still pay tariffs of about 8 percent because the available preferences are not being fully utilized.
Chesney also pointed to Uganda’s significant potential in dairy exports.
She said Algeria alone represents a potential market worth more than $500 million annually for Ugandan dairy products.
According to her, stronger coordination between government institutions and exporters will be necessary to tap into such opportunities.
The Long Road to a $500 Billion Economy
Throughout the conference discussions, participants acknowledged that Uganda has already made meaningful progress in strengthening its trade ecosystem.
The country has expanded its export base, improved quality standards, upgraded border infrastructure, and deepened regional trade integration.
However, leaders and experts agreed that reaching the ambitious target of a $500 billion economy will require faster implementation of reforms.
They emphasized the need to boost value addition, reduce non-tariff barriers, strengthen manufacturing, and promote closer collaboration between government institutions and the private sector.
Ultimately, participants concluded that trade will remain one of the most important drivers of Uganda’s economic transformation in the decades ahead.
