A new nationwide survey has once again underscored President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni’s commanding position ahead of Uganda’s 2026 general election, projecting him as the overwhelming favourite with an estimated 70 percent of the vote.
The poll, conducted by the Pulse256 Youth Insights Network (PYIN) between October 1 and 10, 2025, offers a revealing portrait of Uganda’s evolving political landscape — one defined by a deepening rural-urban divide that continues to shape voter preferences and party strength.
Rural Strongholds and Development Dividend
The findings reaffirm Museveni’s long-standing dominance in rural Uganda, where the National Resistance Movement (NRM) continues to draw substantial loyalty.
According to the survey, 76 percent of rural respondents indicated they would vote for the NRM, citing the government’s community-based development programs such as the Parish Development Model (PDM) and Emyooga as key drivers of economic transformation in their localities.
Analysts attribute the ruling party’s enduring appeal to tangible economic schemes that have visibly touched ordinary lives in villages across the country.
From small business start-up grants to cooperative savings groups, these initiatives have reinforced the perception that stability under Museveni’s leadership translates into opportunity and gradual progress.
In Western Uganda, Museveni’s traditional bastion, his support is estimated to range between 80 and 85 percent.
In the West Nile region, he commands about 72 percent support, which researchers link to what they describe as a “trade and security advantage” — a blend of peace dividends and access to cross-border economic activity with South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
“The countryside remains the engine room of incumbency,” the PYIN report notes. “It is where the NRM’s message of continuity and stability resonates most deeply.”
Urban Dissatisfaction and the Youth Factor
While Museveni’s dominance is near-unquestioned in the countryside, the picture shifts sharply in urban centres.
In towns and cities, the National Unity Platform (NUP) led by Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, popularly known as Bobi Wine, retains a notable foothold among younger and more educated voters.
The poll shows that in urban areas, the NUP commands about 40 percent support compared to the NRM’s 48 percent.
Yet researchers caution that this urban enthusiasm remains heavily concentrated in the Kampala–Wakiso metropolitan corridor, limiting its potential to significantly shift national outcomes.
“The youth in towns want change, but here we want stability because life is improving slowly,” one respondent from Gulu told field researchers, reflecting the contrasting sentiments between Uganda’s two sociopolitical worlds.
The Tale of “Two Ugandas”
The PYIN report frames Uganda’s current political reality as a story of “two Ugandas” — one urban, impatient for change and reform, and another rural, committed to gradual improvement and continuity.
This division, the report argues, has become the central fault line in national politics and will likely determine the outcome of the 2026 election.
For many in rural areas, Museveni’s leadership represents a guarantee of security, predictability, and steady development.
The survey found that 72 percent of respondents prioritised peace and steady livelihoods over systemic political change, while only 18 percent expressed a desire for a complete overhaul of government.
Development Gains Reinforcing Confidence
The report highlights the government’s achievements in infrastructure, energy, and industrialisation as critical to sustaining the NRM’s appeal.
Since 1986, Uganda’s tarmac ked road network has expanded six fold, electricity generation capacity has surpassed 2,000 megawatts, and 11 industrial parks are now operational across the country.
The government has also established 19 presidential skilling hubs, providing thousands of young people with vocational training in fields such as tailoring, welding, carpentry, and mechanics.
These programs, the report notes, have created a visible link between national policies and household livelihoods — a factor that continues to consolidate Museveni’s political base.
On the social front, Uganda has seen measurable improvements in living standards.
The report cites a decline in national poverty levels from 21.4 percent in 2016 to 16.1 percent in 2025, alongside an increase in life expectancy to 68 years.
These gains, analysts say, underpin the NRM’s messaging of “steady progress” and strengthen the perception that the current government delivers tangible outcomes, however gradual.
Opposition Momentum and Structural Challenges
For Robert Kyagulanyi’s NUP, the challenge remains expanding beyond urban youth demographics to reach the vast rural electorate.
The survey describes the NUP as “energetic but demographically narrow,” noting that while the party has mastered digital mobilization and urban activism, it lacks the grassroots organizational depth of the NRM.
Other opposition figures, including Nandala Mafabi of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), Mugisha Muntu of the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT), and Munyagwa Mubarak of the Common Man’s Party (CMP), collectively garner less than 10 percent of projected votes.
This fragmentation, coupled with logistical and structural constraints, further dilutes opposition influence at the national level.
“The NRM is predictable, organized, and embedded,” the report concludes, adding that Museveni’s political machine remains unrivaled in its capacity to mobilize, communicate, and deliver visible projects across Uganda’s regions.
Outlook Toward 2026
If elections were held today, the PYIN survey projects that President Museveni would secure a decisive first-round victory, sustained by rural trust, visible infrastructure development, and continued delivery of social and economic programs.
However, analysts caution that the opposition could still shape the narrative if urban mobilization expands or if economic pressures alter public sentiment.
But absent such a dramatic shift, the 2026 election appears poised to reaffirm the NRM’s dominance and the continuity of Museveni’s nearly four-decade rule.
As the campaign season approaches, Uganda stands at a familiar crossroads — one where stability and continuity remain the currency of political loyalty, even as calls for renewal and generational change continue to echo across the country’s rapidly expanding cities.
